Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
