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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.