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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd